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Thursday, August 16, 2007

Carry Trade Ruined by Stocks Market Chaos

EUR/USD reached its two month minimum and almost broker out of its long-term bullish trend today. World stocks markets continue to fall with the main reason lying in panic caused by the crisis in subprime lending U.S. sector. Cashing out of stocks papers causes also carry trade retreating with a huge buying back of JPY and USD (in a lesser dimension) for other currencies - thus the rally of JPY and USD. Even bad economical news from U.S. don't stop from buying it for Euro.
Weekly employment data showed a little increase of the initial jobless claims - 322k from 316k previous week, while analysts expected a small decrease.
Housing data continue to come out worse and worse - housing starts came out to be 1381,000, while building permits - at 1373k, which is approximately 25k lesser than the market was expecting.

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Thursday, August 02, 2007

Forex - Calm Before the Friday Storm?

EUR/USD today continued going flat below 1.3700 mark unsure if Euro has enough power and U.S. economy has more holes to stop Bernanke from raising the rates before the Autumn comes. This day didn't bring a lot of macroeconomic surprise to traders, but it had its important data.
Initial jobless claims for the previous week in United States increased by as little as 4k and came out at 307k - still lower than 310k predicted - that is, the employment market remains one of the steadiest part of the U.S. economy.
Factory orders in June rose by 0.6% which is far better than the May's number of -0.5% decline, but slightly lower than predicted growth of 1.0%. I think that this indicator will just be a little slower second half of the 2007, staying positive to provide better total GDP numbers.

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Thursday, July 26, 2007

Bad U.S. News Keeping EUR/USD Above 1.3700

Today EUR/USD was ranging between 1.3690 and 1.3770 marks retracing a half of the yesterday's dollar rally. U.S. economy had some bad news for dollar bulls with only one bad for Euro bulls.
Manufactured durable goods orders in June increased by only 1.4% which was much lower the expected number - 2.0%, but still better than May result of decline in 2.8%.
Initial jobless claims for the last week surprisingly came out at the 301,000 level, slightly below the 310,000 number which was predicted by financial experts. Being the only positive news for the day, job market is still doing quite well, especially comparing to realty market.
Help-wanted advertising index isn't a very influential indicator of the economy growth but its decline to 26 (its staying at 27 was expected) can be an early sign for some problems on the U.S. employment market.
New homes sales in June dropped significantly from 893K (revised from 915K) to 834K units, continuing the series of bad news from the real estate sector of economy.

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